As the West shifts attention to the Middle East, it cannot afford to take its eye off Vladimir Putin. If the ensuing chaos distracts us from Ukraine, it will further empower the Russian autocrat in achieving his global aims. Worse, it may inspire other bad actors to do the same.

Russia Cozies Up to Nations Unfriendly to the West

Russia’s casualties in Ukraine continue to mount amidst the latest offensive, but the war continued unabated. The Kremlin sees this war as a proxy for an existential battle with the West. Rather than back down, Putin continues to bolster ties outside the liberal free world. These relationships help him garner resources to continue to fight Ukraine and undermine the West.

While Moscow and Beijing continue to bolster ties even further, analysts are becoming increasingly wary that the West will likely have to face Russia and China’s actions together as one strategic set. That scenario appears more likely now. This goes on as North Korea may be arming  Russia to help it fight in Ukraine.

Russia’s relationship with Iran, already on an upward trajectory for years before the invasion of Ukraine, has been edging closer to a defense partnership. It is hardly news that Russia’s arms have found their way to Hezbollah and Hamas for years or that leaders of both organizations have made trips to Moscow. Indeed, Moscow does not consider either as a terrorist organization. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas meanwhile is expected to come to Moscow in the near future.

Middle East Power Broker

Putin’s Russia cultivated an image of something of a Middle East power broker, but in reality, Putin has always leaned closer to anti-American forces in the region. In his response after the Hamas attack, where Putin laid the blame on US regional policies, simply highlights this reality more explicitly.

Putin is well aware that the Ukraine war has not gone according to plan. But this is precisely why he may use this situation to escalate against the West. Prior to the Hamas attack, Putin was already seeking ways to impose maximum costs on the West with minimal cost and effort, low-level crises in the Balkans, South Caucasus, Middle East, and Africa. In Latin America, Wager had been useful in propping up friendly governments.

If the West gets distracted from Ukraine, Putin will further take advantage of these opportunities. These could include cyber operations against U.S. forces, disinformation campaigns, and the use of Wagner to support Hezbollah and other anti-American actors. In his October 19 address, urging aid to Ukraine and Israel, President Biden rightly said that both Hamas and the Kremlin aim to undermine liberal democracies. As Congress continues to debate the aid package, nothing can pass until the House of Representatives selects a speaker and is ready to legislate again.

In the meantime, Western policymakers need to think about how to impose costs on Moscow in a way that outweighs the benefits of escalation. Otherwise, Moscow will have no incentive to change its calculus. Indeed, this summer saw increasing tensions with the U.S. in the skies over Syria through harassment of U.S. drones. This cost of escalation did not outweigh the benefits to Moscow’s position in the Middle East. This harassment stopped after the U.S. sent F-35s to the region, but there is no guarantee it won’t resume again. Policymakers also need to think strategically across the global stage and look at linkages across multiple theaters, and shifting power balances there, as the Kremlin does.